The Road to MSG

Circuits is a new series that leverages JamBase Data to tell stories about what's happening in live music now. Here, we turn our focus to the winding and varied paths artists take on their way to their first headlining show at the fabled Madison Square Garden. What does it take to get there? Let's look at the numbers.

JamBase Data, pulled October 2026

Madison Square Garden at night, its curved facade lit in purple, red and blue, with Olivia Rodrigo's sold-out show on the marquee screens. — Olivia Rodrigo on the marquee at Madison Square Garden. Photo by Michael Müller.

There’s an old joke that posits that the way to get to Carnegie Hall doesn’t involve addresses or street directions, but simply “practice, practice, practice!” It’s become so ubiquitous over the years that it has its own page on the venue’s website. But what about America’s other iconic venues? How, for example, do you get to Madison Square Garden? Practice, of course, but the career paths that lead an artist to a headlining slot at the marquee venue are many and varied.

By digging into who makes it to MSG, how they get there, and when their moment arrives, we learn something about the artist’s place in the live music ecosystem. We can also build a framework for speculating on who might come next.

Since 2021, 142 distinct artists have headlined MSG for the first time or are booked to do so by June 2027, and each has had a different path to that stage. Below, we’ll divide the journeys these artists have taken into six broad archetypes, each reflecting a timeline and gig history leading to the main event.

Artists could potentially fit into more than one category, but these designations illustrate some of the most common paths to that coveted slot. From there, we’ll take this information and look ahead at who might be next.

(Note that while MSG is legendary, it’s similar in capacity to Brooklyn’s Barclays Center, and comparable to the Prudential Center across the river in Newark. Some artists enter the arena-sized realm through a different door entirely.)

142
first-time headliners, 2021 through June 2027
98 + 44
climbers + veterans and reunions
6.8 yrs
median climb, first show to MSG headline
28 of 98
climbers arrived as MSG support first

Six Doors into The Garden

Each dot is one artist: years from first show on record to first MSG headline, grouped by door. Black ticks are row medians; hollow dots are booked, not yet played. Hover or tap a row or a dot.

98 climbers; 78 shown across the five climbing doors; 20 (14 Ladder Climbers, 6 Festival-Forged) fit no named door.

The 44 veterans and reunions, on their own scale:

Hover or tap a dot for the artist.

Source: JamBase Data, pulled October 2026. View the Data (122 Rows)

Six Doors into The Garden

Feid	Road Warriors	2.6	111
Benson Boone	Road Warriors	2.8	129
Alex Warren	Road Warriors	3.5	181
Laufey	Road Warriors	3.9	150
Gracie Abrams	Road Warriors	4.2	132
Tate McRae	Road Warriors	4.6	107
John Summit	Road Warriors	5.0	152
Greta Van Fleet	Road Warriors	6.1	101
Noah Kahan	Road Warriors	6.4	202
Don Toliver	Road Warriors	6.6	97
Lainey Wilson	Road Warriors	6.7	154
Dom Dolla	Road Warriors	7.0	177
Maggie Rogers	Road Warriors	7.5	116
Two Friends	Road Warriors	7.5	118
Mt. Joy	Road Warriors	7.6	148
Dermot Kennedy	Road Warriors	7.7	177
The Red Clay Strays	Road Warriors	7.7	139
Cigarettes After Sex	Road Warriors	8.0	102
Jelly Roll	Road Warriors	9.3	165
HAIM	Road Warriors	10.2	25
Goose	Road Warriors	10.6	139
RÜFÜS DU SOL	Road Warriors	10.6	115
Lake Street Dive	Road Warriors	11.7	86
Leon Bridges (booked)	Road Warriors	11.9	72
Morgan Wallen	Pandemic Build	4.6	55
Billie Eilish	Pandemic Build	5.0	18
Kane Brown	Pandemic Build	5.9	70
Luke Combs	Pandemic Build	5.9	58
Giveon	Pandemic Build	6.0	20
Dan + Shay	Pandemic Build	6.2	25
Keshi	Pandemic Build	6.5	31
Louis Tomlinson	Pandemic Build	6.6	65
HARDY	Pandemic Build	6.7	99
beabadoobee	Pandemic Build	7.2	62
Rosalía	Pandemic Build	7.2	28
Lizzo	Pandemic Build	7.7	9
Lewis Capaldi	Pandemic Build	8.3	34
Phoebe Bridgers	Pandemic Build	9.4	0
Kacey Musgraves	Pandemic Build	9.9	8
Kali Uchis	Pandemic Build	9.9	34
Glass Animals	Pandemic Build	10.1	24
Bryson Tiller	Pandemic Build	10.7	73
Charli XCX	Pandemic Build	11.4	26
Lorde	Pandemic Build	12.0	9
Asake	Helicopters	1.9	25
Forrest Frank	Helicopters	1.9	56
Grupo Firme	Helicopters	2.0	56
Ishay Ribo	Helicopters	2.0	21
Carín León	Helicopters	2.9	113
Peso Pluma	Helicopters	3.1	83
Karan Aujla (booked)	Helicopters	4.3	32
boygenius	Helicopters	4.9	47
Dimash Qudaibergen	Helicopters	5.8	4
Fuerza Regida	Helicopters	6.0	108
Diljit Dosanjh	Helicopters	8.0	33
Dua Lipa	Support Graduates	5.6	33
Olivia Dean	Support Graduates	7.2	96
Niall Horan	Support Graduates	7.5	61
Gunna	Support Graduates	7.8	52
Sabrina Carpenter	Support Graduates	7.9	119
SZA	Support Graduates	8.1	20
Madison Beer	Support Graduates	8.8	44
AJR	Support Graduates	9.1	94
Doja Cat (booked)	Support Graduates	9.1	64
Bleachers	Support Graduates	10.2	60
Charlie Puth	Support Graduates	10.9	45
Melanie Martinez	Support Graduates	11.1	83
Carly Rae Jepsen (booked)	Support Graduates	14.5	19
Olivia Rodrigo	Pop Escalators	2.5	74
sombr (booked)	Pop Escalators	2.8	158
Anuel AA	Pop Escalators	3.9	44
Karol G	Pop Escalators	4.3	41
Måneskin	Pop Escalators	4.3	63
Conan Gray	Pop Escalators	5.5	55
Joji	Pop Escalators	5.5	42
Davido	Pop Escalators	5.9	35
Wizkid	Pop Escalators	6.3	41
Daniel Caesar	Pop Escalators	6.9	43
Joe Hisaishi	Veterans Return	2.9	107
Hans Zimmer	Veterans Return	8.4	51
Meek Mill	Veterans Return	9.8	9
The Postal Service	Veterans Return	10.4	10
mgk	Veterans Return	11.1	62
Big Time Rush	Veterans Return	11.5	7
The War on Drugs	Veterans Return	12.8	7
Black Coffee	Veterans Return	12.9	126
Florence + The Machine	Veterans Return	12.9	17
Pet Shop Boys	Veterans Return	13.1	27
Nicki Minaj	Veterans Return	13.3	24
Tedeschi Trucks Band	Veterans Return	13.4	177
Los Temerarios	Veterans Return	13.5	69
Pierce The Veil	Veterans Return	13.5	113
GHOST	Veterans Return	13.8	76
Tears For Fears	Veterans Return	14.0	46
Enrique Bunbury	Veterans Return	14.1	14
Lord Huron	Veterans Return	14.8	71
Los Tigres del Norte	Veterans Return	14.9	108
Cage The Elephant	Veterans Return	15.4	41
Reba McEntire	Veterans Return	15.4	67
Kylie Minogue	Veterans Return	15.5	49
Nathaniel Rateliff & the Night Sweats	Veterans Return	15.5	121
Nas	Veterans Return	16.2	44
The National	Veterans Return	16.2	63
Shinedown	Veterans Return	16.4	64
Two Door Cinema Club	Veterans Return	16.4	36
Lil Wayne	Veterans Return	16.6	63
Demi Lovato	Veterans Return	16.8	7
Avenged Sevenfold	Veterans Return	17.0	4
Avril Lavigne	Veterans Return	17.1	50
Bring Me the Horizon	Veterans Return	17.2	47
Kid Cudi	Veterans Return	17.3	29
"Weird Al" Yankovic	Veterans Return	17.8	21
Erykah Badu	Veterans Return	18.0	75
Limp Bizkit	Veterans Return	18.9	17
Lily Allen	Veterans Return	19.4	50
Wu-Tang Clan	Veterans Return	19.4	58
The Doobie Brothers	Veterans Return	20.1	116
Deftones	Veterans Return	21.7	32
Hilary Duff	Veterans Return	22.7	37
Pantera	Veterans Return	24.8	69
Rage Against The Machine	Veterans Return	30.2	14
Roxy Music	Veterans Return	50.8	2

data.jambase.com

Door 1 of 6Road Warriors

These artists live on the road, grinding out gig after gig in the city and around the world to build their audience and sharpen their chops for the bigger stages that await them. On average, artists in this mold have 7.1 years between their first recorded show on JamBase and their MSG debut. In some respects, this is the textbook method for reaching MSG, but it doesn’t come without work. There are some extreme examples: Connecticut-formed Jam Band Goose played a total of 86 NYC-area* shows before hitting MSG, while Noah Kahan played 202 shows in the 24-month lead-up to his MSG show.

But in general, this is the path for artists who work their way up. Bands like HAIM climbed the ladder of NYC venues step-by-step: the L.A. band went from Glasslands Gallery (300-cap, 2012) to Brooklyn Bowl (600-cap, 2013) to Webster Hall (1,400-cap, 2013) to Terminal 5 (3,000-cap, 2014) and then played Radio City Music Hall (6,015-cap) in 2018. Their MSG headlining debut happened in 2022.

* NYC-area covers JamBase’s New York City metro area: the five boroughs plus surrounding communities in northern and central New Jersey, Long Island and southwestern Connecticut.

Road Warriors: HAIM's Path to The Garden

May 2012	Glasslands Gallery, Brooklyn	300	Headline
Jun 2013	Brooklyn Bowl, Brooklyn	600	Headline
Sep 2013	Webster Hall, Manhattan	1,400	Headline
May 2014	Terminal 5, Manhattan	3,000	Headline
Jul 2015	MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, NJ	50,000	Support (Taylor Swift)
May 2018	Radio City Music Hall, Manhattan	6,015	Headline
Aug 2019	The Rooftop at Pier 17, Manhattan	3,400	Headline
May 2022	Madison Square Garden, Manhattan	20,789	MSG headline debut

Next Door: Pandemic Build Back to the Six Doors

Door 2 of 6Pandemic Build

It’s impossible to talk about shifts in the live music landscape without discussing the COVID-19 pandemic. MSG went dark after The Brothers, featuring members of The Allman Brothers Band, on March 10, 2020, and didn’t host another show until Foo Fighters played on June 20, 2021, 467 days later. Some artists scheduled for their MSG debut before the shutdown wound up playing after, including Billie Eilish on February 18, 2022, who would have fit into the Pop Escalator slot had she played her originally scheduled date at age 18 on March 15, 2020.

But some artists built their audiences while the calendar was empty, and played much bigger rooms once shows came back. Country superstar Morgan Wallen headlined more than 40 shows in 2019 in rooms with a typical capacity of about 1,200; when touring resumed, it was closer to 18,000, and he made his first Garden headline in February 2022. Kacey Musgraves climbed from about 2,900 seats to nearly 19,800 over the same stretch and arrived at MSG in February 2022, the same month Wallen did, while Lizzo went from about 2,500 to nearly 20,000 before headlining The Garden for the first time in 2022.

Pandemic Build: Morgan Wallen's Path to The Garden
NYC-area venues by capacity. Hollow markers are support slots. Hover or tap a stop for the venue.

Pandemic Build: Morgan Wallen's Path to The Garden

Nov 2017	Stereo Garden, Patchogue, NY	1,100	Support
Mar 2018	House Of Independents, Asbury Park, NJ	500	Headline
Aug 2018	Catholic Health Amphitheater at Bald Hill, Farmingville, NY	7,000	Support
Feb 2019	Irving Plaza, Manhattan	1,200	Headline
Feb 2019	The Stone Pony, Asbury Park, NJ	600	Headline
Mar 2019	Paramount Theatre, Asbury Park, NJ	1,600	Headline
Mar 2020 to Jun 2021	MSG dark: 467 days	n/a	n/a
Feb 2022	Madison Square Garden, Manhattan	20,789	MSG headline debut

Next Door: Helicopters Back to the Six Doors

Door 3 of 6Helicopters

Helicopter artists break the mold. Often, they hail from outside the U.S. and Canada and have large fanbases among diaspora communities in the New York area. Artists in this category make their way to the stage faster than others, on average headlining MSG four years after their first recorded show on JamBase.

Nigerian Afrobeats star Asake, for example, headlined MSG in August 2024, just 1.9 years after his first recorded show.

Regional Mexican artists and other Latin artists often fit this archetype: the median time between these artists’ first shows and MSG headlining dates is just three years, suggesting a rapid rise fueled by a fanbase built through exposure outside mainstream English-language media.

Helicopters: Asake's Path to The Garden

Oct 2022	Palladium Times Square, Manhattan	2,100	Headline
Sep 2023	Barclays Center, Brooklyn	19,000	Headline
Aug 2024	Madison Square Garden, Manhattan	20,789	MSG headline debut

Next Door: Support Graduates Back to the Six Doors

Door 4 of 6Support Graduates

This path is tried and true. Of the 98 climbers, 28 had previously played MSG as support. While some have other factors at play, artists in this archetype are those for whom the support slot they played at the arena is the highlight of their journey to the stage. Sometimes, it takes a while.

Melanie Martinez, for example, took over a decade between her New York debut at the now-defunct club Rockwood Music Hall and her MSG debut. Sabrina Carpenter first appeared at MSG during the 2018 Jingle Ball as a support act and finally headlined six years later. Others, like Olivia Dean, have had shorter journeys. Dean appeared on Carpenter’s Short n’ Sweet Tour at the venue in October 2025, before returning for her own headline dates in 2026.

Support Graduates: Sabrina Carpenter's Path to The Garden
NYC-area venues by capacity. Hollow markers are support slots. The diamond marks the first MSG appearance, on a big multi-act bill. Hover or tap a stop for the venue.

Support Graduates: Sabrina Carpenter's Path to The Garden

Nov 2016	iPlay America's Event Center, Freehold, NJ	900	Headline
Aug 2017	The Wellmont Theater, Montclair, NJ	2,137	Headline
Dec 2018	Madison Square Garden, Manhattan	20,789	First MSG appearance, marker only: Dec 2018: Z100's Jingle Ball, support on an 11-act bill
Mar 2019	The Wellmont Theater, Montclair, NJ	2,137	Headline
Mar 2019	Irving Plaza, Manhattan	1,200	Headline
Oct 2022	Webster Hall, Manhattan	1,400	Headline
May 2023	Terminal 5, Manhattan	3,000	Headline
Sep 2024	Madison Square Garden, Manhattan	20,789	MSG headline debut

Next Door: Pop Escalators Back to the Six Doors

Door 5 of 6Pop Escalators

Compared to the longtime grinders, this group of artists has a smoother, faster ascent. These artists are powered by the streaming, radio, and social momentum of the mainstream pop industry rather than the more gradual slopes of the live-music circuit. On average, artists sorted into this archetype reach MSG 4.8 years after their first recorded show, notably faster than the median. These journeys can include artists with many different trajectories.

It ranges from pop wunderkinds like Olivia Rodrigo (first headline show, April 2022 in Portland, headlined MSG in April 2024) to short-form video stars like Joji (from 88rising tour support in 2018 to his own MSG headline in 2023) to Eurovision breakouts like Måneskin (two years of homegrown Italian shows before their 2021 Eurovision win sent them global, then an MSG headline in September 2023). What unites them is a meteoric rise and an ability to glide past the traditional barriers to the stage, thanks to their fame and streaming numbers.

Pop Escalators: Olivia Rodrigo's Path to The Garden

Apr 2022	Radio City Music Hall, Manhattan	6,015	Headline
Apr 2024	Madison Square Garden, Manhattan	20,789	MSG headline debut

Next Door: Veterans Return Back to the Six Doors

Door 6 of 6Veterans Return

For some genres, including metal, the only path to The Garden is via a reunion or a long-awaited return from a hiatus. While these MSG debut gigs are hard to predict, they represent a sizable fraction of the artists who have played The Garden for the first time over the past few years. And they do represent a truly wide-ranging swath of artists.

From revered metal acts like Pantera, to rap greats like Wu-Tang Clan, to poptronica curios like The Postal Service, several acts who might not have been able to ascend to The Garden under more normal circumstances were bolstered by their long-awaited returns to the stage.

How Long the Veterans Waited

Each dot is one of the 44 veterans and reunions: years from first show on record to first MSG headline. Dark dots are the acts named above; hollow dots are booked, not yet played. Median 15.5 yrs. Hover or tap a dot for the artist.

Hover or tap a dot for the artist.

Source: JamBase Data, pulled October 2026. View the Data (44 Rows)

How Long the Veterans Waited

Joe Hisaishi	2.9
Hans Zimmer	8.4
Meek Mill	9.8
The Postal Service	10.4
mgk	11.1
Big Time Rush	11.5
The War on Drugs	12.8
Black Coffee	12.9
Florence + The Machine	12.9
Pet Shop Boys	13.1
Nicki Minaj	13.3
Tedeschi Trucks Band	13.4
Los Temerarios	13.5
Pierce The Veil	13.5
GHOST	13.8
Tears For Fears	14.0
Enrique Bunbury	14.1
Lord Huron	14.8
Los Tigres del Norte	14.9
Cage The Elephant	15.4
Reba McEntire	15.4
Kylie Minogue	15.5
Nathaniel Rateliff & the Night Sweats	15.5
Nas	16.2
The National	16.2
Shinedown	16.4
Two Door Cinema Club	16.4
Lil Wayne	16.6
Demi Lovato	16.8
Avenged Sevenfold	17.0
Avril Lavigne	17.1
Bring Me the Horizon	17.2
Kid Cudi	17.3
"Weird Al" Yankovic	17.8
Erykah Badu	18.0
Limp Bizkit	18.9
Lily Allen	19.4
Wu-Tang Clan	19.4
The Doobie Brothers	20.1
Deftones	21.7
Hilary Duff	22.7
Pantera	24.8
Rage Against The Machine	30.2
Roxy Music	50.8

data.jambase.com

Back to the Six Doors

Who’s Got Next

Using the data that went into describing these archetypes, we can speculate on which artists might be eyeing a debut at Madison Square Garden next. The following chart highlights artists across genres and archetypes who have all the right signals to hit MSG when the time is right.

We developed a score from five JamBase Data signals. It weighs the biggest NYC room played in the last 24 months, how far the artist’s average room sits from MSG’s capacity, year-over-year room growth, volume of shows played in the last two years measured against 200 shows, and whether a support slot or Theater at MSG date is already banked.

MSG Readiness Board: Who Has the Signals

See Ranking Methodology

Five components from JamBase Data, each a continuous measure from 0 to 1, weighted 40/15/10/10/10 by default and scaled so the score reads out of 100. NYC ladder (40): the biggest NYC-metro room headlined in the last 24 months, on a log scale from 2,500 to MSG's 20,789 seats. Room trajectory (15): how close the artist's average room over the last 12 months sits to MSG capacity. Momentum (10): year-over-year growth in room size. Touring volume (10): shows in the last 24 months relative to 200 shows, capped at 200. Foot in the door (10): the one tiered credit, full for an MSG support slot, 0.8 for an NYC arena headline, 0.7 for a Theater at MSG date. Pool: every artist who headlined a 2,500-cap or larger NYC-metro room in the last 24 months and has not headlined MSG and has no MSG headline currently announced.

Formula Mixer

NYC Ladder40

Room Trajectory15

Momentum10

Touring Volume10

Foot in the Door10

Our weights are one theory of how you get to The Garden. Disagree? Dial your own.

Total weight: 85. Scores are scaled so the board still reads out of 100.

#ArtistScoreBiggest NYC RoomRampFoot in the Door

1No change from our formulaTeddy Swims95.8MSG support
Score95.8Biggest NYC Room vs. MSG19,000Shows in Ramp: 163MSG support
2No change from our formulaZach Top92.4MSG support
Score92.4Biggest NYC Room vs. MSG15,000Shows in Ramp: 198MSG support
3No change from our formulaElla Langley92.2NYC arena headline
Score92.2Biggest NYC Room vs. MSG19,500Shows in Ramp: 143NYC arena headline
4No change from our formulaMegan Moroney92.2NYC arena headline
Score92.2Biggest NYC Room vs. MSG19,500Shows in Ramp: 131NYC arena headline
5No change from our formulaMartin Garrix92.0NYC arena headline
Score92.0Biggest NYC Room vs. MSG19,000Shows in Ramp: 162NYC arena headline
6No change from our formulaBilly Strings91.7NYC arena headline
Score91.7Biggest NYC Room vs. MSG19,500Shows in Ramp: 149NYC arena headline
7No change from our formulaRiley Green91.3NYC arena headline
Score91.3Biggest NYC Room vs. MSG17,500Shows in Ramp: 157NYC arena headline
8No change from our formulaONE OK ROCK90.6MSG support
Score90.6Biggest NYC Room vs. MSG19,500Shows in Ramp: 65MSG support
9No change from our formulaPlayboi Carti90.6NYC arena headline
Score90.6Biggest NYC Room vs. MSG19,500Shows in Ramp: 124NYC arena headline
10No change from our formulaKaytranada90.5NYC arena headline
Score90.5Biggest NYC Room vs. MSG19,000Shows in Ramp: 112NYC arena headline

When you change the weights, arrows show how many places each artist moved from our formula’s ranking. Room bars are drawn against the MSG line (20,789 seats). Rows that tie on score go to the higher NYC ladder, then A to Z by artist name.

Source: JamBase Data, pulled October 2026. View the Data (25 Rows)

Swipe the table sideways for every column

MSG Readiness Board: Who Has the Signals

1	Teddy Swims	95.8	19,000	163	MSG support
2	Zach Top	92.4	15,000	198	MSG support
3	Ella Langley	92.2	19,500	143	NYC arena headline
4	Megan Moroney	92.2	19,500	131	NYC arena headline
5	Martin Garrix	92.0	19,000	162	NYC arena headline
6	Billy Strings	91.7	19,500	149	NYC arena headline
7	Riley Green	91.3	17,500	157	NYC arena headline
8	ONE OK ROCK	90.6	19,500	65	MSG support
9	Playboi Carti	90.6	19,500	124	NYC arena headline
10	Kaytranada	90.5	19,000	112	NYC arena headline
11	BABYMETAL	89.3	17,500	123	NYC arena headline
12	Kehlani	89.3	19,000	91	NYC arena headline
13	Sturgill Simpson	89.3	19,000	91	NYC arena headline
14	Ken Carson	89.0	19,000	94	NYC arena headline
15	Kany García	88.7	19,500	97	NYC arena headline
16	Omar Courtz	88.4	19,000	76	NYC arena headline
17	Bad Omens	88.1	19,500	61	NYC arena headline
18	Summer Walker	87.1	19,000	55	NYC arena headline
19	IVE	87.0	19,500	43	NYC arena headline
20	Blessd	87.0	19,500	62	NYC arena headline
21	El Gran Combo de Puerto Rico	86.4	19,500	38	NYC arena headline
22	B2K	86.2	19,500	29	NYC arena headline
23	Jungle	85.9	19,000	45	NYC arena headline
24	Shreya Ghoshal	85.8	19,500	25	NYC arena headline
25	Jackson Wang	85.3	19,000	24	NYC arena headline

data.jambase.com

Across the rest of 2026 and into June 2027, nine acts are booked to headline MSG for the first time: ascendant pop stars sombr (file under: Pop Escalator) and Doja Cat (Support Graduate), Punjabi hitmaker Karan Aujla (Helicopter), reggaetonero Ryan Castro, pop cult favorites Carly Rae Jepsen and Slayyyter, singer-songwriter Lizzy McAlpine, British neo-soul singer Cleo Sol, and soul singer Leon Bridges.

Bridges will arrive 11.9 years after a 575-cap Bowery Ballroom debut, with 18 NYC shows behind him. His path: Bowery Ballroom, Music Hall of Williamsburg, the Apollo, Webster Hall, the Beacon (twice), Radio City (twice) and Forest Hills Stadium, then The Garden.

In the abstract, a list this diverse doesn’t reveal what makes a great booking at The Garden. Look closer, though, and most of these artists fit one of the archetypes above; the rest are climbing the classic New York ladder, rung by rung. These paths show how an artist can make it to MSG, too, aided by a little practice, practice, practice.

Inside a packed Madison Square Garden during Harry Styles' show, with arcs of white light under the ceiling and a giant video screen hung above a ring-shaped stage on the floor. — Harry Styles, 2026. Photo by Anthony Pham.